Blair's Bushcraft
Financial Times (Editorial)
Dec. 10, 2004
Tony Blair has declared that global warming will be one of his top priorities during Britain's presidency of the Group of Eight industrialised nations next year. His global leadership ambitions took a knock this week when the government admitted it would miss its manifesto target for cutting carbon emissions. But the prime minister is right to press US President George W. Bush to do more to reduce emissions - even if it falls short of the Kyoto protocol.
The truth is that Kyoto will never be endorsed by the US - even though enough nations have now signed up for it to come into force in the spring. Americans fear meeting its target for cutting emissions by 2012 would add to business costs and lead to loss of jobs.
Worse, the beneficiaries would include developing countries such as India and China that are not subject to the Kyoto target. If work moved from the US to less energy-efficient plants in such countries, greenhouse gas emissions could increase.
Mr Bush refuses to accept the scientific evidence that carbon emissions are behind the recent sharp changes in the global climate. There is a suspicion that Kyoto is a European attempt to undermine US competitiveness. The president prefers to support research into alternative energy sources and the causes of climate change.
Yet without US involvement, the objectives of the Kyoto protocol are vitiated. The US, with 5 per cent of the world's population, accounts for 25 per cent of carbon emissions. Without it, only partial progress can be made on Kyoto, and its refusal to sign up for the protocol encourages poorer countries to see greenhouse gases as a by-product of economic development, rather than an imminent threat.
That is not to say that Kyoto should be scrapped. Worthwhile progress will be made in reducing carbon emissions among those signed up for the targets. The European Union will introduce an emissions trading system next year that could expand its reach to other regions if successful.
The trick would be to persuade the US to make greater efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, without endorsing Kyoto. As Lord Browne, BP chief executive, recently pointed out, these efforts need not weaken profitability - they can add to it. Reducing emissions from homes, shops and public buildings would create jobs.
This week's report from the US National Commission on Energy Policy - a bipartisan body - suggested a further measure to provide market incentives for such reductions. It recommended a mandatory programme of tradeable permits for greenhouse emissions, capped at a level that would avoid a sudden shock to business.
The US pioneered such a system for the gases that create acid rain and the president has supported a similar "clear air" policy on particle emissions. Extending this approach to carbon emissions would be a welcome step - even if it fell short of Kyoto.
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